The Accidental Salesman brand markThe Accidental Salesman

Subject notebook

Evidence & experiments

Better questions, bounded tests and claims that can be inspected.

18 entries · Editorial years are reading-sequence years; historic years are capture years, not publication dates.

Editorial essay · 2026

Stop a tactic when its job is finished

A tactic can become part of the routine long after the condition that justified it has changed. The newsletter continues, the event repeats and the outreach sequence runs because stopping would require someone to question a past decision.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

Measure the cost of a bad fit

An unsuitable client costs more than the hours lost on the project. The work can occupy senior attention, delay better opportunities and leave the team less willing to pursue similar engagements. These effects are real even when they are difficult to price precisely.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

Reader growth is not the same as commercial relevance

A publication can attract a large audience that has little use for its deeper work. Broad headlines may increase visits while the people who need practical advice struggle to find it. Audience size and editorial usefulness should be assessed separately.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

A sales dashboard needs fewer promises

Dashboards become crowded because every stakeholder adds a metric and few remove one. The result can look comprehensive while making the next decision harder. A small professional firm needs a view it can use, not a replica of a large sales organisation's reporting stack.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

Contribution margin should inform what you sell next

Revenue growth can conceal a shift toward work that is harder to deliver profitably. A firm may win larger projects while consuming more scarce expertise, carrying more risk and leaving less room for development.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

Time saved is valuable only if something changes

An improved workflow can release hours without changing the firm's economics. People may use the time on higher-value work, absorb more demand or simply expand other activities. The benefit depends on what happens next.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

A channel deserves credit for its contribution

A buyer may read an article, hear a referral, attend a workshop and later submit a website form. Assigning the entire sale to the form creates a tidy report and an incomplete explanation.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

The denominator can change the story

A conversion rate looks simple until you ask what was counted. Wins divided by all enquiries tells a different story from wins divided by qualified opportunities. Both can be valid, but they answer different questions.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2026

Forecast from commitments, then calibrate

A forecast is a judgment about timing and likelihood, not a collection of optimistic deal values. The useful question is what evidence supports the judgment and how well similar judgments have performed in the past.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Publish the method alongside the result

A headline result invites attention. A method allows scrutiny. If a publication wants readers to rely on its experiments, it needs to explain how the result was produced in enough detail that another practitioner can understand the test.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

A useful benchmark needs a population

"Top-performing firms do this" is incomplete without knowing which firms were examined and how performance was defined. A benchmark can create confidence while comparing businesses with fundamentally different economics.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Compare approaches without arranging the winner

A comparison article can look independent while its criteria have been chosen to favour the author's preferred offer. The result may be persuasive to a casual reader but unhelpful to someone making a real decision.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Build an evidence ledger

A growing firm accumulates claims in proposals, presentations and website copy. Over time, the same result may appear with different dates, metrics or explanations. An evidence ledger creates a single place to check what can responsibly be said.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Testimonials answer a different question from evidence

A testimonial can show that a client valued the experience. It may say little about whether the service caused a measurable result. Both kinds of information are useful, but they should not be made interchangeable.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Keep a record of what did not work

Successful examples travel easily. Failed attempts remain in private notes or disappear when the next initiative begins. The resulting knowledge base can make selling look more predictable than it is.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Small samples deserve modest conclusions

A new proposal format wins three projects in a row. It is tempting to declare it the reason. Yet the buyers may have been stronger fits, the prices lower or the salesperson more experienced. With a small sample, coincidence can look like a method.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

Measure buyer progress, not seller motion

Emails sent, calls made and proposals produced are easy to count. They tell you about effort. They do not necessarily tell you whether buyers are moving toward a worthwhile purchase.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

Editorial essay · 2025

An experiment begins with a decision

"Let's test it" sounds disciplined, but a test without a decision attached can become another activity to report. Before changing a message, offer or process, state what the result will help you choose.

Evidence & experiments · 2 min

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